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Bubble Watch: 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracketology, Feb. 23

· Yahoo Sports

Jan 14, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon looks on against the BYU Cougars during the first half at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

TCU Men’s Basketball’s clutch late-game comeback to take down West Virginia in Schollmaier Arena over the weekend may not have moved the needle nationally or in the detailed statistical metrics, but it was a desperately needed result for a Horned Frogs squad clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes. While the result only goes into the ledger as a Q2 victory, it allows TCU to keep pace and prevented the Mountaineers from adding a Q1 road win to its at-large resume. Now at 7-7 in conference play, TCU has a real opportunity to finish above .500 in the Big 12 for the first ever with several challenging but winnable games in the final two weeks of the regular season. Tuesday night presents another near must-win for TCU in Fort Worth, a Q2 contest vs. a frisky Arizona State team that took down Texas Tech last week. The Sun Devils are clinging to a faint flicker of hope to remain alive in the Bubble race, a flame the Frogs could douse on Tuesday night.

Horned Frogs Team Sheet

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Bracket Projections:

Note: all rankings are per NET unless otherwise noted

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  • Lunardi: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #43 New Mexico in Dayton, OH
  • Palm: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #43 New Mexico in Dayton, OH
  • Haslam: First Four Out
  • Torvik: First Four Out, 45.2% in Tournament, average seed 10.5
  • INCCSTATS: 54% in Tournament, average seed 9.8
  • BracketMatrix: Last Four In, average seed 10.98

Around the Bubble

Impact Games of the Weekend
  • #34 Georgia Bulldogs (↑5) defeats #39 Texas Longhorns (↓4) – A Bubble battle between teams that both felt highly confident about their at-large odds, with the winner making a leap up towards near lock and the loser falling back to the pack and needing to make some waves to lock in that bid. UGA held serve in Athens with the 11-point victory and now can look beyond the Bubble towards a seeding improvement with two Q1 opportunities remaining. Any two wins should fully lock up a bid for the Bulldogs. The Longhorns remain projected in the field today with an average seed of 9.45, but with three Q1 games highlighting a challenging close to the season, it’s possible UT loses out and falls deep to the wrong side of the Bubble by Selection Sunday.
  • #50 Virginia Tech (↑6) defeats #65 Wake Forest (↓7) – While the Hokies remain well below the cut-line, averaging about 25% likelihood to reach the Tournament, a blowout home win over a fellow ACC at-large contender was major progress. VA Tech sits with a brutal 2-8 Q1 record, the Hokies will be heavy underdogs in its two remaining Q1 opportunities, road games at #27 UNC & #15 Virginia, it’ll likely take winning out to realistically secure a bid. The Wake resume is in a truly desperate state now, where even winning out may not be enough with just a single Q1 opportunity remaining, so it’ll take winning out and multiple wins in the ACC Tournament to remain in consideration.
Climbing
  • #51 Cincinnati Bearcats (↑11) – No at-large contender got a bigger win than the Bearcats, one of the biggest wins for any Bubble team all season, walking into Allen Fieldhouse and smashing the #18 Jayhawks to such an extent that people are ready to fire Bill Self. While the Bearcats’ resume remains in pretty rough shape at 2-9 in Q1, it has continued a climb up the NET ranks all season with a Top-30 RPI SOS and now a 4-game Big 12 win streak. With three Q1 games remaining, including the season finale at TCU, Cincinnati will have the opportunity to force its way into the field if it can keep the win streak rolling.
  • #73 Minnesota Golden Gophers (↑6) – Perhaps the longest of long shots to earn an at-large selection, the Gophers went on a lengthy losing streak through Big Ten play which was broken by a major win over #12 Michigan State and now has added wins over the league-basement teams Oregon & Rutgers. With all its remaining games coming against Top-80 squads, including Q1 road contests in Ann Arbor & Bloomington. The chances are exceedingly low, but I’m saying there’s a chance.
  • Other Key Bubble Wins: #41 UCLA (-) win vs. #4 Illinois; #49 Baylor (-) win vs. #68 Arizona State; #32 Auburn (↑1) win vs. #29 Kentucky; #42 (↑1) Texas A&M win at #70 Oklahoma
Falling
  • #75 Grand Canyon Lopes (↓7) – So much for the best home court advantage in the sport. After flying high last week with a pair of big wins, the Lopes got caught looking ahead to its showdown with Utah State next Saturday, dropping an inexcusable game at home to #97 Wyoming. The loss eliminates GCU from at-large contention, now becoming a possible bid-thief out of the MWC Tournament.
  • #58 USC Trojans (↓6) – USC was as high as 20th in the NET earlier this season, but is now on a three game losing streak after dropping a brutal home Q3 loss to #113 Oregon as the Ducks scored the game’s final seven points to steal the win. The Trojans have an extremely difficult schedule to close the regular season, but that offers plenty of opportunity to get back on the right side of the Bubble.
  • Other Key Bubble Losses: #82 Creighton (↓8) 29-point loss to #23 St. John’s; #83 Oklahoma State (↓6) loss to #69 Colorado; #56 Washington Huskies (↓6) loss to #143 Maryland

Bubble Watch

One of the tough truths about the Bubble race is that it takes a series of big-time wins to truly secure that spot in the LOCK column, but any loss can send you tumbling towards the abyss. Wisconsin locked up its bid with a dominant performance on Sunday in a winner-gets-locked showdown vs. Iowa. St. Louis also officially got locked into the Big Dance by outlasting VCU in A-10 heavyweight battle while the rest of the Bubble hopes the Billikens cruise through the A-10 Tournament to avoid any true bid thief. In addition to the aforementioned GCU Lopes, Oklahoma State & Creighton also took the killshot loss, each getting demolished on the road in must-win games to be knocked out of at-large contention. The Bubble is now left with 40 teams battling for just 18 possible at-large slots. There are many teams right on the brink of sustaining that final eliminating loss, with Washington, West Virginia, and Stanford now potentially just one loss away from getting the axe. The Horned Frogs remain just along the cut-line, depending on exactly where the field gets sliced, with another opportunity to deliver a damaging blow to a fellow Big 12 at-large contender with the Tuesday’s contest vs. Arizona State in Schollmaier Arena.

Look Ahead:

After a massive weekend across the sport, the week ahead is filled with opportunities for Bubble teams to make a big splash with resume-boosting opportunities across the board. With 11 marquee upset opportunities vs. already-locked programs, we could see some significant movement across the at-large landscape if anyone can pick up that signature win. The week will also feature five double-bubble showdowns with Iowa, SMU, and Saint Mary’s potentially locking up a bid with a win, while others can take a big step towards the right side of the Bubble.

Bubble Battles 🫧🆚🫧
  • #71 Oklahoma Sooners vs. #33 Auburn Tigers – Tue. Feb. 24, 8:00 PM, ESPNU
  • #47 TCU Horned Frogs vs. #68 Arizona State Sun Devils – Tue. Feb. 24, 8:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
  • #28 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #37 Ohio State Buckeyes – Wed. Feb. 25, 8:00 PM, Big Ten Net
  • #59 Cal Bears vs. #31 SMU Mustangs – Wed. Feb. 25, 9:00 PM, ACC Net
  • #25 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. #40 Santa Clara Broncos – Wed. Feb. 25, 10:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
Bubble vs. Locks 🫧🆚🔒
  • #51 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #14 Texas Tech Red Raiders – Tue. Feb. 24, 6:00 PM, ESPN2
  • #26 NC State Wolf Pack vs. #15 Virginia – Tue. Feb. 24, 6:00 PM, ACC Net
  • #73 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. #1 Michigan Wolverines – Tue. Feb. 24, 7:30 PM, Big Ten Net
  • #49 Baylor Bears vs. #3 Arizona Wildcats – Tue. Feb. 24, 8:00 PM, ESPN2
  • #61 Missouri Tigers vs. # 17 Tennessee Volunteers – Tue. Feb. 24, 8:00 PM, SEC Net
  • #46 UCF Knights vs. #19 BYU Cougars – Tue. Feb. 24, 10:00 PM, ESPN2
  • #80 Butler Bulldogs vs. #30 Villanova Wildcats – Wed. Feb. 25, 6:00 PM, FS1
  • #34 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #16 Vanderbilt Commodores – Wed. Feb. 25, 6:00 PM, SEC Net
  • #39 Texas Longhorns vs. #7 Florida Gators – Wed. Feb. 25, 6:00 PM, ESPN2
  • #42 Texas A&M Aggies vs. #20 Arkansas Razorbacks – Wed. Feb. 25, 8:00 PM, ESPN2
  • #44 San Diego State Aztecs vs. #24 Utah State Aggies – Wed. Feb. 25, 10:00 PM, FS1
Bubble vs. Spoiler 🫧🆚❌
  • #56 Washington Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Tue. Feb. 24, 5:30 PM, Big Ten Net
  • #36 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #79 Northwestern Wildcats – Tue. Feb. 24, 6:00 PM, FS1
  • #65 Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Boston College Eagles – Tue. Feb. 24, 6:00 PM, ESPNU
  • #29 Kentucky Wildcats vs. #105 South Carolina Gamecocks – Tue. Feb. 24, 6:00 PM, SEC Net
  • #62 Boise State Broncos vs. #97 Wyoming Cowboys – Tue. Feb. 24, 8:00 PM
  • #43 New Mexico Lobos vs. #66 Nevada Wolfpack – Tue. Feb. 24, 10:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
  • #52 USF Bulls vs. #249 Rice Owls – Wed. Feb. 25, 7:00 PM, ESPN+
  • #67 LSU Tigers vs. #91 Ole Miss Rebels – Wed. Feb. 25, 8:00 PM, SEC Net

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