Crime stats nothing to celebrate: Three lives lost every hour despite murder drop
· Citizen
Though the SA Police Service (Saps) management celebrated a 10% year-on-year decrease in murder cases, experts say that three people are murdered every hour in this country – a figure that needs serious and urgent attention.
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Recent police statistics showed murders in October to December 2025 had dropped by 602 to 6 351 murders from the 6 953 in the same period in 2024.
This means that 2 117 people are murdered every month, 71 a day with almost three people losing their lives every hour.
Latest crime stats show fewer murders
The statistics also revealed that the country recorded 11 430 rapes (127 rapes per day and more than five rapes every hour).
Saps crime registrar MajorGeneral Thulare Sekhukhune said it was good to see the murder statistics falling after being on the rise for decades.
“The statistics have been declining throughout 2025. This quarter showed an 8.7% decrease or 602 fewer lives lost.”
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Experts told The Citizen the murder crisis was still a serious problem, which means there is nothing to celebrate and they called for urgent action.
IRS Forensic Investigations CEO Chad Thomas said murder has become a major problem in South Africa.
Thomas said one of the biggest challenges in the fight against murder was the rate of convictions which, he said, remains shockingly low.
Rate of convictions shockingly low
“Of all the murder cases reported, only around 12% of cases lead to convictions. This is not the fault of the National Prosecuting Authority, as their conviction rate is fairly high, resulting from the fact that they will only enrol cases for prosecution when there is a prospect for a successful prosecution.
“Most cases are not enrolled due to poor detective work, which is due to a lack of experienced detectives, limited infrastructure and a massive backlog at state-run laboratories.”
Thomas said the country needs more well-trained detectives and to have the necessary resources to investigate crime.
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“Criminals become far more emboldened to commit serious crimes when they see little to no consequences for their actions.”
David Bruce, a consultant specialising in policing, crime and criminal justice, said: “There are different ways of looking at this issue. One big factor is that a lot of the victims are young men, anywhere between 17 and about 35 or 40 years old.
“Not all of them are poor, but they are people on the margins of society in one way or another. They are people whom our society doesn’t have much concern about.
A lot of victims young men
“If they were other people being murdered, society would be more concerned.
“But in South Africa, the violent death of thousands of young men is something that people don’t get upset about.
“There are aspects of the problem of murder that people are talking about, for instance, the murders of women and farmers. South Africa is only selectively paying attention to murder.”
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Lisa Schickerling, DA spokesperson on police, said the figures confirmed that South Africa remains in a sustained violent crime crisis.
“While percentage shifts are often highlighted, the absolute scale of violence remains devastating and unacceptable.
“The DA is deeply concerned that policing success continues to be measured primarily in terms of arrest numbers rather than convictions.”
Arrests alone don’t protect communities
“Operations such as Operation Shanela routinely produce high arrest figures. However, arrests alone do not protect communities. What protects communities are successful prosecutions and meaningful sentences.”
Conviction rates and case finalisation rates must become the primary indicators of policing effectiveness, she said.
Schickerling said weak investigations result in weak prosecutions as poorly prepared dockets collapse in court.
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She said the country urgently requires prosecution-led investigations, where cases are built from the outset with evidentiary strength and courtroom sustainability in mind.
Without convictions, crime statistics become little more than a ledger of violence, she said.
Influenced by social, economic, personal, and psychological factors
Professor Witness Maluleke, senior criminologist from the University of Limpopo, said murder cases were influenced by many factors, social, economic, personal and psychological, among others.
Maluleke said it was systematic in nature, making it difficult for police to address it.