Trump says he prefers diplomacy, but lays the case for war with Iran
· Axios
President Trump said in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday that he prefers a diplomatic solution to the crisis with Iran, but at the same time laid out a case for a potential war against the Islamic Republic.
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Why it matters: Trump's remarks about Iran were relatively short and were not the center part of his speech, but it was the first time he detailed the reasons that led him to consider launching a military campaign.
- Trump's speech may mark the launch of an effort to prepare U.S. public opinion for going to war against Iran and to justify such a move if he concludes that the negotiations with Iran have reached a dead end.
- At Trump's orders, the American military has assembled over the past several weeks the biggest military build-up in the Middle East since the U.S. invaded Iraq.
- His speech increased the likelihood that the meeting between his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi planned to take place in Geneva on Thursday could be the last chance to reach a diplomatic breakthrough and prevent war.
Zoom in: Trump outlined in his speech a list of reasons for the current crisis with Iran:
- He said that for 47 years the Iranian regime and its proxies "have spread terrorism and hate," killing thousands of people in the region, including American soldiers and at least 32,000 civilians during protests that erupted last December.
- Trump said the Iranian regime has developed ballistic missiles that threaten Europe and U.S. bases in the region and claimed the Iranians are developing intercontinental ballistic missiles "that will soon reach the U.S."
- U.S. intelligence assesses Iran is developing such missiles, but will need at least another decade to do it.
Of note: Trump's most serious claim was that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, that he said was "obliterated" during the Israeli-led 12-day war last June.
- He said Iran was warned after that war not to try and rebuild its nuclear weapons program.
What he's saying: "We are in negotiations with then and they want to make a deal but we haven't heard those secret word — we will never have a nuclear weapon," Trump said.
- "My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain, I will never allow the number one state sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. And no nation should ever doubt America's resolve."
The other side: Several hours before Trump's speech Iran's foreign minister wrote on X that Iran will resume talks with the U.S. in Geneva on Thursday in order to reach "a fair and equitable deal" as soon as possible.
- "A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority" Araghchi wrote.
- Araghchi stressed that Iran's position is that it will never develop a nuclear weapon "under no circumstances".
Behind the scenes: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe gave a classified briefing on Tuesday to the "gang of eight" about the crisis with Iran.
- Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking member om the House Intelligence Committee, said after the briefing he was very concerned that Trump might be about to go to war with Iran.
- "We have not heard articulated a single good reason for why now is the moment to launch yet another war in the Middle East," he said.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said after the briefing that he still had "a lot of questions that need to be answered about the military buildup in the region."