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March Madness 2026: Region-by-region predictions, Cinderellas, expert picks, odds, schedule and more

· Yahoo Sports

With the 2026 NCAA tournament upon us, here's everything you need to know about all four regions.

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More regional breakdowns: West | Midwest | South

Favorites

Duke is the No. 1 overall seed after a 32-2 campaign that featured a 17-1 record in ACC play and a win over fellow No. 1 seed Michigan on a neutral court. UConn had a shot at securing a No. 1 seed, but settled for a 2 seed after losing to St. John's in the Big East tournament championship. No. 4 seed Kansas is actually a betting favorite over No. 3 seed Michigan State (+5000), thanks largely to the presence of potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick Darryn Peterson in its backcourt.

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When will the No. 1 seed go down?

Duke rightfully earned the No. 1 after largely steamrolling the ACC. Its only conference loss arrived via a last-second buzzer beater on the road against rival North Carolina. Duke's only non-conference loss was an 82-81 defeat to Texas Tech in December.

The Blue Devils posted a 12-2 record against ranked teams that includes a win over then-No. 1 Michigan on Feb. 21. They survived tough games against Florida State and Virginia to claim the ACC tournament championship.

But they are vulnerable. Duke suffered significant setbacks when starting point guard Caleb Foster and starting center Patrick Ngongba both sustained foot injuries late in the season. Both were in walking boots and missed the ACC tournament.

Ngongba is working toward a return and could potentially be ready to play this week. But his playing status and return date is unclear. Foster's injury is more serious, and he's only projected to make a return late in the tournament if at all. For a Duke team that runs a tight rotation, this is a lot to overcome in a single-elimination tournament. An upset loss in a tough regional final is very much on the board.

Who is the Cinderella of the region?

Cinderella is going to have a tough time in the East. Outside of Duke, the East boasts championship pedigree and some of the game's best coaches in UConn's Dan Hurley, Michigan State's Tom Izzo, Kansas' Bill Self and St. John's Rick Pitino. That's a murderer's row of college basketball coaches who will make life tough for any up-and-coming challengers.

But if you insist on tabbing a Cinderella out of the East, there are worse places to look than No. 12 seed Northern Iowa. The Panthers boast one of the best defenses of mid-major teams, ranking 24th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and a remarkable fifth in the nation in defensive rating.

They'll face a St. John's team that fell as a No. 2 seed in the second round last March and enters the NCAA tournament without an established No. 1 point guard. This could be a team ripe for upset against a strong defense. After that, UNI would face a potential matchup against No. 4 Kansas, which has been one of the nation's most volatile teams this season. Kansas could advance to the Final Four — or lose to Northern Iowa in the second round.

Biggest upset of the region?

This leads up back to Kansas. The Jayhawks at their best can compete with the best teams in the nation. They have six wins over ranked teams, including upsets of then-No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Iowa State and No. 5 Houston.

They also lost multiple games to unranked opponents, including late-season duds against Cincinnati and Arizona State teams that did not make the NCAA tournament field. This is a Jekyll and Hyde unit that can lose on any given day if its not at its best. We wouldn't suggest betting on it, but a first-round loss to No. 13 Cal Baptist team that boasts a solid defense (No. 50 in KenPom, No. 34 defensive rating) and a guard in Dominique Daniels Jr. who can light up the scoreboard (23.2 points per game) wouldn't be stunning.

Players to watch

  • Duke F Cameron Boozer

If Duke does advance to the Final Four and beyond, it will be on the back of Boozer, the leading candidate for National Player of the Year honors from a stacked field. Boozer has done nothing but exceed the expectations that he arrived with at Duke as the team's leader on the court and in the box score.

The do-it-all 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 56.5% from the field and 40.9% from 3. He's an inside-out threat who projects conservatively as a top-five NBA Draft pick.

With Foster and potentially Ngongba set to miss more time, the load will be that much heavier on Boozer in the NCAA tournament.

  • Kansas G Darryn Peterson

Peterson is arguably the most important player to his team in the tournament. How he goes dictates how Kansas goes, which could mean a first-round upset or a trip to the Final Four and beyond.

Peterson is an elite talent who started the season as the consensus No. 1 pick in June's NBA Draft. An up-and-down campaign has tempered that excitement, but Peterson is a lock to go high in the lottery if not still No. 1 overall.

There's little question about his basketball ability, and he's flashed it this season with averages of 19.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 38.4% from 3. His overall efficiency has been less than elite (44.2% from the floor, 58.8 true shooting%) and his availability has become a liability.

Peterson has missed 11 of Kansas' 33 games and failed to finish others with uncertainty around exactly why he's missed time. If he's available and on his game, Kansas is dangerous. Anything short of that spells trouble for the Jayhawks.

  • Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr.

Jeremy Fears is the heart and soul of Michigan State's roster, for better or worse. A fiery competitor with talent to match, Fears was a first-team All-Big Ten selection who has averaged 15.7 points and a league-high 9.2 assists this season.

He's an extension of Izzo on the floor who sets the tone for Michigan State's methodical and efficient halfcourt attack.

He also has a penchant for losing his composure and engaging in non-basketball behavior that gets him T'd up. If he can stay on the floor and under control, Michigan State will be a tough out.

East region game schedule, tip times

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Siena (Thursday, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU (Thursday, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa (Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist (Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida (Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State (Thursday, 4:05 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF (Friday, 7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Furman (Friday, 10 p.m. ET, CBS)

Who makes it to Indianapolis?

Duke is the favorite due to its résumé. But this isn't the same team that romped through the regular season if Ngongba and Foster are injured.

If Duke enters a regional final without either or both, the edge goes to a UConn team that's coached by a two-time NCAA champion in Hurley and features multiple national championship players on its roster, including starters Alex Karaban and Solomon Ball.

—Jason Owens

Favorites

Florida enters the the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed with its frontcourt intact from his 2025 NCAA championship roster. Houston has added one of the nation's best guards to a tournament-tested roster that lost to Florida in last year's championship game. Illinois is a young but explosive team that finished in a second-place tie in the loaded Big Ten and can score with any team in the country.

When will the No. 1 seed go down?

Florida wears the crown and returns as a repeat contender and a No. 1 seed. But repeating is hard to do. UConn did it in 2024 as the first repeat champion since, well, Florida in 2007. Before that, 1992 Duke was the last team to secure a repeat championship.

Back from last season's title team are Florida's frontcourt anchors Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, each of whom earned All-SEC honors. Gone to the NBA are guards Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard, replaced by standout transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee in the backcourt.

The result this season was a team that bounced back from a 9-5 start to finish 26-7 and win the SEC. It took a minute for this roster to mesh, but once it did, it became one of the nation's best teams.

But a repeat won't be easy. And it will potentially go through a Houston team that pushed it to the brink in last season's title game and has added significant talent to a strong returning core. Houston-Florida would be for the regional championship this season instead of the national championship and could very well go Houston's way.

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Who is the Cinderella of the region?

VCU brings a strong profile as a No. 11 seed and faces a No. 6 seed in a North Carolina team that's vulnerable. The 27-7 Rams enter NCAA play having won 16 out of their last 17 games en route to an Atlantic 10 tournament championship.

VCU is a balanced unit that ranks 46th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and 60th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rams feature an all-conference guard in Terrence Hill Jr. who's capable of lighting it up from 3 (36.1% on 5.9 attempts per game) and facing a UNC team that ranked 242nd in the nation in opponents' 3-point percentage (34.5%).

But North Carolina's biggest problem is who won't be on the court. Gone is team leader and freshman phenom Caleb Wilson, who's a projected top-five NBA Draft pick. He's out for the tournament with a broken thumb. With Wilson, North Carolina had Final Four upside. Without him, it's vulnerable to a first-round upset.

Biggest upset of the region?

See above. While the East makes a strong case as the toughest region, analytics actually point to the South as the tournament's toughest region at the top. No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed Houston, No. 3 seed Illinois, No. 4 seed Nebraska and No. 5 seed Vanderbilt are all top 14 teams, according to KenPom.

They also all rank in the top 14 in NET rankings and top 18 in WAB (wins above bubble). It's difficult to peg any of the top five seeds as vulnerable to upset. UNC, meanwhile, ranks 29th, 24th and 21st in KenPom, NET and WAB, respectively. And those were rankings built largely with Wilson in the lineup. UNC is the most upset-vulnerable team in this region.

Players to watch

  • Houston G Kingston Flemings

Houston returns starters Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler and Milos Uzan from last season's national runner-up team. None of them are the best player on Houston's roster. Flemings is an explosive 6-foot-4 scoring point guard who's taken the lead role on a veteran roster with Final Four experience.

A projected top-five NBA Draft pick, Flemings leads Houston with 16.4 points, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game. He's a three-level scorer who attacks the rim with ferocity and shoots 39.2% from 3. He could be the difference from last year's team that lost in the national championship game and this year's team in winning one.

  • Illinois G Keaton Wagler

Alongside Flemings, Wagler is another explosive scorer from this season's phenomenal NCAA freshman class who could hear his named called in the lottery of June's NBA Draft. A lights-out shooter with a 6-6 frame who can also finish at the basket, Wagler is a first-team All Big Ten selection and the biggest reason Illinois earned a No. 3 seed.

Wagler averaged 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.6 assist per game while shooting 40.2% on 5.8 3-point attempts per game. He set Illinois' freshman scoring record and is capable of taking over any game he plays in. Just ask No. 2 seed Purdue, which was on the wrong end of a 46-point effort from Wagler in which he shot 9 of 11 from 3.

  • Florida F Thomas Haugh

Haugh has evolved from a valuable sixth man from Florida's championship roster to a first-team All-SEC forward and the Gators' No. 1 option. Haugh moved into the starting lineup this season as a junior and enters the NCAA tournament averaging a team-high 17.1 points alongside 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.1 steals per game.

He's developed into a first-round NBA prospect in the process. If Florida advances to a second consecutive Final Four, Haugh will be a big reason why.

East region game schedule, tip times

No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida (Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa (Friday, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese (Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET, TruTV)

No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy (Thursday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TruTV)

No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU (Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn (Friday, 9:25 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET, TruTV)

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho (Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET, TruTV)

Who makes it to Indianapolis?

Florida bested Houston last season. But Houston has added a dynamic weapon in Flemings to a roster that returns the core of last year's Final Four team. And if Florida and Houston do meet in the Elite Eight, Houston will have a significant advantage.

The South regional will take place in Houston's Toyota Center. Advantage, Cougars.

—Jason Owens

Favorites

Arizona is the No. 3 favorite overall behind Duke and Michigan after winning the Big 12 in convincing fashion. After the Wildcats, everyone else in the region can be considered a long shot. Purdue was one of the biggest risers before Selection Sunday, and Gonzaga is a top-three seed for the first time since 2023. Arizona is -105 to make the Final Four and -250 to make it to the Elite Eight, while Purdue is +300 to win the region and Gonzaga is +550.

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When will the No. 1 seed go down?

The Wildcats look like a lock to get to the Sweet 16, but getting out of the region could be tough. No. 4 Arkansas has won 13 of its last 15 games and could have the best player in the region with Darius Acuff Jr.

Purdue also showed why it was the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 with its run to the Big Ten tournament title. The Boilermakers had lost three of their last four regular-season games but won four straight — including a 16-point win over Nebraska — to secure the Big Ten’s automatic berth.

Arizona, meanwhile, has won nine straight games after its only two losses of the season to Kansas and Texas Tech. After beating the Jayhawks and Houston once each and Iowa State twice in that nine-game span, it’s hard to see how Arizona doesn’t make the Final Four.

Who is the Cinderella of the region?

High Point is a high-scoring team. Sorry for the horrible attempt at a pun there, but the region’s No. 12 seed averages 90 points per game. Just three teams score more per game than the Panthers. High Point shoots 49% from the field and also averages almost 11 steals per game. That’s the highest total in the country.

Can the Panthers upset Wisconsin? The Badgers turn the ball over just nine times a game. If High Point can dictate the tempo against Wisconsin, then they will have a chance to get to the Sweet 16.

Biggest upset of the region?

If High Point doesn’t take down Wisconsin, is there an opportunity for any of the four lowest-seeded teams in the region to get a win? Keep an eye on No. 13 Hawaii.

No. 4 Arkansas has been hot to end the season, but John Calipari’s teams have struggled as high seeds in recent years. Arkansas made the Sweet 16 a season ago as a No. 10 seed, but Calipari’s last three Kentucky teams had a combined record of 1-3 in the NCAA tournament and were top-six seeds in each of those seasons. If Calipari’s high-seed curse continues, the Razorbacks will be looking at a quick exit.

Players to watch

  • Arizona G Brayden Burries

We could pick multiple Wildcats here; that’s how deep Arizona’s starting lineup is. Senior Jaden Bradley hit the game-winning buzzer beater against Iowa State in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament. Freshman forward Koa Peat had 21 points in the Wildcats’ win over Houston in the title game.

But we’ll go with another freshman here in Burries. He also scored 21 in the win over Houston as he shot 60% from the field and made all seven of his free throws. That came after Burries had 21 against UCF in the tournament opener and 31 against Colorado to end the regular season.

The guard is Arizona’s leading scorer and also grabs nearly five rebounds a game while shooting 37% from behind the arc. Burries is a potential top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft if he chooses to turn pro.

  • Purdue G Braden Smith

Smith should break a longstanding men’s basketball record in the Boilermakers’ first-round game against Queens. After dropping 11 assists in Purdue’s Big Ten tournament title game win over Michigan, Smith needs just two assists to break Bobby Hurley’s record for career assists.

Hurley had 1,076 assists from 1990 through 1993 at Duke. Smith now sits at 1,075. He’s averaging nine assists and 14 points a game in 2025-26 after scoring nearly 16 points a game and averaging 8.7 assists a season ago.

Purdue might have discovered something in the Big Ten tournament, too. The No. 1 team in the preseason AP Top 25 entered the conference tournament with four losses in its last six regular season games. In Chicago, the Boilermakers won all four of their games by multiple possessions and Smith had a whopping 46 assists in those games.

  • Gonzaga F Graham Ike

The West Coast Conference player of the year has averaged over 10 points a game in all five of his college basketball seasons. This season, Ike is averaging 19.7 points per game while shooting 57% from the field.

Believe it or not, that’s his worst shooting percentage as a Zag. In his first season after transferring from Wyoming, Ike shot 61% from the floor. A season ago, he was at just under 60%. This year, he’s upped his 3-point attempts (he’s shooting 35% from beyond the arc) and is also shooting more than two additional shots per game than he did in either of his first two seasons in Spokane.

West region game schedule, tip times

  • No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island (San Diego, Friday, 1:35 p.m. ET, TNT)

  • No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State (San Diego, Friday, 4:10 p.m. ET, TNT)

  • No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point (Portland, Thursday, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii (Portland, Thursday, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas or NC State (Portland, Thursday, 7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State (Portland, Thursday, 10 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri (St. Louis, Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET, TruTV)

  • No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens (St. Louis, Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET, TruTV)

Who makes it to Indianapolis?

It’s very chalky to go with the top seed in the region, but that’s what we’re doing. This is an Arizona team that has had just one bad week all season. The Wildcats’ only two losses came in the same week and they are entering the postseason on a nine-game win streak. Arizona could be the most well-rounded team in college basketball. They have strong guards in Bradley and Burries, a deep frontcourt and senior Anthony Dell’Orso has become one of the best sixth men in college basketball.

—Nick Bromberg

Favorites

Michigan opened as the early favorite after the selection show, but is now firmly the No. 2 favorite behind Duke. Iowa State’s odds have slowly gotten better since the bracket was released, as bettors clearly like the draw the Cyclones got on their side of the bracket. Virginia, meanwhile, has the highest odds of any top-three seed to win the national title. No. 5 seeds like Vanderbilt and St. John’s (66-1) have better odds to win it all than the Cavaliers do.

When will the No. 1 seed go down?

It’s hard to see how Michigan isn’t going to make the Final Four. The Wolverines opened as the betting favorites to win the national title because they’re healthier than No. 1 overall seed Duke and also because they have a better draw than the Blue Devils. The Midwest is pretty wide open behind Michigan, and you can make a serious case for numerous teams to make the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight alongside the Wolverines.

Who is the Cinderella of the region?

There are a couple of intriguing candidates to make a run as a double-digit seed in the Midwest. The obvious choice is No. 11 Miami (Ohio) after the RedHawks went the entirety of the regular season without losing a game before falling in the MAC tournament. However, Miami has to get past SMU in the First Four to earn a matchup with No. 6 Tennessee in the first round.

No. 10 Santa Clara could be ripe to pull an upset over No. 7 Kentucky and give No. 2 Iowa State trouble in the second round. Kentucky enters the tournament with 13 losses and four of those came to teams who were not ranked at the time of the game. Santa Clara finished third in the West Coast Conference and made the WCC title game before losing to Gonzaga. The Broncos have shot nearly 1,000 3-pointers already this season. Only 13 teams at the top level of college basketball have hoisted more. And we all know what can happen when a double-digit seed gets hot from behind the arc.

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Biggest upset of the region?

Another reason to like Miami is Tennessee coach Rick Barnes’ record against the spread in the NCAA tournament. Though Tennessee went to the Elite Eight a season ago, the Vols were just 2-2 against the spread in those four games. Overall, teams coached by Barnes are just 7-19 against the spread across the last 12 NCAA tournaments.

Akron is also going to be a trendy upset pick, especially for people who are not confident in the health of Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson. Tech said Sunday that Watson will be available for the NCAA tournament after he slipped and fell on the Big 12’s LED court during the Red Raiders’ conference tournament loss to Iowa State.

Anderson has been massive for the Red Raiders in JT Toppin’s absence. Toppin, one of the best players in the country, tore an ACL on Feb. 17. Anderson has been playing nearly every minute he can since then and is averaging 19 points per game.

If he’s not fully healthy, Tech will be very vulnerable.

Players to watch

  • Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg

The UAB transfer has been one of the best players in college basketball this season. Lendeborg shoots 51% from the field as he averages 14.4 points and seven rebounds per game. He scored 20 points in the Wolverines’ Big Ten tournament championship game loss to Purdue and dropped 27 while making 67% of his shots in the last game of the regular season against Michigan State.

Michigan’s size is a mismatch for most opponents as the frontcourt trio of Lindeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara average nearly 30 points and over 20 rebounds a game. Can anyone slow the Wolverines’ big men down before the second weekend of the tournament?

  • Iowa State F Milan Momcilovic

The junior has been absolutely absurd from behind the arc this season. Momcilovic leads Iowa State with 17.1 points per game and is shooting 51% from the field. But less than half of his shots come inside the 3-point line.

Momcilovic is shooting almost 50% from the 3-point line on 7.5 attempts per game this season. His attempts from behind the arc make up basically two-thirds of his overall shot attempts — he’s shooting 55% from 2-point range — and may be the best volume shooter from long range in college basketball.

That was on full display in the Cyclones’ Big 12 tournament semifinal loss to Arizona on Friday. Momcilovic was 8-of-14 from the 3-point line and 10-of-18 from the field as he had 28 points in the 82-80 defeat.

  • Virginia F Ugonna Onyenso

There’s an extremely good reason we are highlighting a player who is averaging 6.7 points and five rebounds a game in this section.

Onyenso was an absolute eraser in the lane during the ACC tournament and can be the type of defender that anchors a deep tournament run. He set the ACC tournament record with 21 blocks across three games — that is not a typo — and broke the previous record by 50 percent.

In the Cavaliers’ ACC title-game loss to Duke, Onyenso scored just six points but had eight rebounds and nine blocks. That came just two days after he had eight blocks in a win over NC State. He slacked off in the semifinal win against Miami with four blocks but had 17 points as the Cavaliers won by 22. The Nigeria native played at Kentucky and Kansas State before transferring to Virginia this season and could be earning a serious look by NBA teams with the way he can swat shots. Perhaps most impressively, Onyenso accompanied those 21 blocks with just three fouls.

Midwest region game schedule, tip times

  • No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 UMBC or Howard (Buffalo, Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

  • No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Buffalo, Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

  • No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron (Tampa, Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TruTV)

  • No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra (Tampa, Friday, 3:15 p.m. ET, TruTV)

  • No. 6 Tennessee s. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) or SMU (Philadelphia, Friday, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State (Philadelphia, Friday, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS)

  • No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (St. Louis, Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

  • No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State (St. Louis, Friday, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)

Who makes it to Indianapolis?

We can’t go against the favorite to win it all. The bracket lines up very well for Michigan. Iowa State can beat anyone when Momcilovic is hot and Joshua Jefferson was an all-Big 12 player this season. But the two teams are very disparate. Michigan can dominate on the inside and has enough talent on the perimeter to not let the Cyclones run wild if they meet in the Elite Eight.

—Nick Bromberg

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