Michigan State vs. UConn scouting report, prediction for March Madness Sweet 16
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Connor Earegood of The Detroit News breaks down Michigan State's Sweet 16 opponent in the NCAA Tournament and predicts the outcome:
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Michigan State vs. UConn scouting report
▶ After winning two national championships as an underclassman, Alex Karaban is playing some of his best basketball in his final season with the Huskies. The 6-foot-8 native of Massachusetts is averaging 13.3 points to pair with 5.2 rebounds per game this season, but he had 27 points (16 in the second half) against UCLA to get to this Sweet 16 while figuring out how to tough out an injury to point guard Silas Demary Jr. Karaban had 18 points with ease against MSU in an Oct. 28 exhibition the Huskies won 76-69. His ability to come around screens and shoot, as well as pull up from mid-range, can pose problems for the Spartans who have fumbled on ball screen defense in some big games this season, including games against Duke and Michigan.
▶ Tarris Reed Jr. isn't the same player he was at Michigan two years ago, when a doughy version of the 6-foot-11 bruiser was a shining light in an otherwise ugly 8-24 season. At UConn, he has become everything a dominant big man should be. He swallows rebounds and makes the most of his ample touches when the Huskies throw it inside. His 14.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game are impressive in their own right, but his 62.8 field-goal percentage ranks 17th among all players in Division I. As his 31 points, 27 rebounds against Furman in the opening round showed, he can be a menace when unchecked. Expect Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler to play their part against him, and maybe redshirt freshman Jesse McCulloch if there's foul trouble.
▶ Two of the country's best defenses will square up Friday. UConn ranks 11th in points allowed per game at 65.1, Michigan State ranked 41st at 68.4. Analytics site KenPom ranks the Huskies’ defense 11th in adjusted efficiency at 94.0 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spartans sit close by at 13th allowing 94.4 points per 100 possessions. Points don't come easy against either team, which could make Friday's game a slugfest. That will put a lot of strain on each team to make the most of its possessions by not turning the ball over and getting after the offensive glass for second-chance points. Last time out, Michigan State finished with 15 turnovers in a win over Louisville, and UConn finished with 16 against UCLA.
Michigan State vs. UConn prediction
Tom Izzo's Elite Eight runs tend to come in bunches when he's got the right guys in place. He certainly has a point guard he'll ride or die with in Jeremy Fears Jr., who says all the records he's breaking don't mean squat without a Final Four run attached to them. Oh? Michigan State will need Fears to set the defense well in this one, because the Spartans can't afford to let Karaban steal the show. The frontcourt has faced a lot of great bigs this season, though the bully ball style of Reed is a little imposing. Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler will have to handle that assignment to keep their senior years alive. A big key to this game will be how Jordan Scott and Cam Ward apply the lessons learned last week in NCAA Tournament debuts they wish they had squeezed more out of. In front of a hometown crowd, maybe that gives them a spark. Both sides expect a slobber-knocker here. This one could come down to who makes 3s, but I think it may come down to who converts one last possession with the whole world watching. Michigan State, and Kohler, lands the final punch. Pick: Michigan State 64-62
NCAA Tournament
NO. 3 MICHIGAN STATE VS. NO. 3 UCONN
▶ What: Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament game
▶ When: Friday, 9:45 p.m.
▶ Where: Capital One Arena, Washington
▶ TV: CBS
▶ Records: Michigan State 27-7, UConn 31-5
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Michigan State Spartans prediction for Sweet 16 of 2026 NCAA bracket